Sydney's Public Transport Tipping Point

The latest numbers from the NSW Transport Data Centre indicates that Sydney's inner and middle-ring commuters are driving to the CBD as much as the unserviced outer-ring suburbanites according to this SMH article.


It made me stop and think of why people don't use Public Transport or PT.  Here's my list:

• Cars are door to door, while PT includes walks and exposure to the elements at both ends.
• Cars are spontaneous and convenient while you have to wait for PT.
• It sucks to catch PT while carrying stuff.
• You need to study up on the procedures, routes, fares etc for PT while cars are correct-as-you-go.
• Car usage costs are no deterrent for the middle-to-high income set.
• Sometimes you need to catch two buses/trains to get where you're going.  This is annoying, it doubles the cost and - well - it just the principle of the thing!
• PT is slower than cars.  (Lets' face it - who isn't time-poor these days?)
  

So that's a lot of points.  Let's refine our scope here.  When we talk about traffic and PT problems we're really only talking about the daily peak times so it's all about getting morning and afternoon commuters onto PT.  Let's also assume the major problems lie in the direct routes to and from the CBD.  Statistics show these are the most congested and problematic routes.


So now I can eliminate issues of planning and waiting - this is all factored into the daily routine.  The direct routes largely only involve one direct trip without the need to change trains.  We could also assume that the majority of commuters aren't carrying groceries or other heavy loads on a majority of days.  (Of course there's the weekly grocery shop at Woolies Metro on Tuesday nights, but that still leaves four days out of five unencumbered.)


What issues does that leave?

1. Cars are door-to-door.
2. Car costs aren't a deterrent.
3. PT is slower.

Let's look at each one:

Cars are door-to-door

Sure, if you're fat and lazy.  I fully accept that this is a deal-breaker some of the time and for some areas of Sydney, but for the inner city daily commute?  You can't walk a bit?  Broke your leg?  Your bus stop is five kilometres away?  Anyone who hasn't got the message about obesity, climate change, pollution and traffic is just selfish.  Buy an umbrella and catch a train!


Car costs are no deterrent

This one is interesting.  The thrust of the aforementioned SMH article is that inner city people have no excuse to drive but do anyway because they can afford it.  Tell that to the Mosman resident whose house price fell 10% in the last 12 months and might lose their job due to the economic crisis.  The recession is looking long and deep.  Costs will become more and more of a deterrent.  Remember last year when everyone was saying the high oil prices were a boon to transport activists because it would be an incentive to switch to PT?  I expect a long slow steady build in PT usage as the recession grinds on.



PT is slower
This is where the tipping point referred to in this article title comes in.  If all else fails, then people will continue to abandon PT for cars.  More cars means slower traffic all round.  Check out my earlier post about the average traffic speeds on key routes to the CBD.  This problem is self correcting, as cars on the roads continue to increase, private vehicle trips times will increase while overall travel times for trains and buses will reduce at a much slower rate or not at all thanks to segregated tracks, bus lanes, and other bus priority measures - making PT a better option.

This tipping point is inevitable and, if current commuter attitudes are anything to go by, it's almost here.  The rush-crush will eventually drive commuters to PT, in turn demanding Governments to improve services.  Many idealists believe (rightly but misguidedly) that PT improvement s should come first to lure commuters onto worlds best PT.  History has shown that only in a crisis and under pressure do Governments act.  The tipping point is coming and it will trigger rapid changes in commuter habits and Government investment in PT.

Get on board!